Where the assumptions break, what the downside actually looks like, and what would have to be true.
Client
US–Japan Macro Corridor
Diverging central bank policies creating asymmetric currency and bond opportunities. The investor needed conviction ahead of consensus repositioning — across every policy scenario combination.
0 days
Signal delivered before market consensus
0
Policy scenarios modeled
0%
ROI on highest-conviction position
Interactive: Policy Scenario Matrix
The practice modeled four Fed x BoJ policy combinations. Click any cell to see the resulting position, conviction level, and the signal that triggered it.
BoJ: Hawkish
BoJ: Dovish
Fed: Hawkish
Fed: Dovish
Long USD/JPY, short JGB futures
Maximum divergence. Fed tightening while BoJ holds. Strongest directional signal. The practice initiated here at 121.4.
Signal Trigger
Fed funds above 4.5% AND BoJ maintains yield curve control
Result
The practice identified the Hawkish Fed / Dovish BoJ cell as the highest-conviction scenario. Long USD/JPY initiated at 121.4. Signal delivered 17 days before institutional repositioning. +14% ROI realized at Q1 close.