Investors & Operators01 / 08

Geopolitical and market intelligence, hyper-curated to our clients.

Capitalize on the risks and opportunities of the world.

The Demand

The threat is recognized. The response is not.

0%

of directors at internationally exposed companies see geopolitical events as a strategic threat

0%

are actively managing it

A 69-point gap between awareness and action, where competitors move and value is lost.

Senior executives citing geopolitical risk as top concern

0%→0%over five years

Sources: Diligent, Corporate Board Member & FTI Consulting (2025); Oxford-GlobeScan

What We Watch

Eight forces. One continuous watch.

01Political
02Policy & Regulatory
03Economic
04Geopolitical
05Market
06Investment
07Social
08Competitive
How we read it

Relevant intelligence is buried by volume. Our method is how we surface it.

We collect wide, filter to what bears on you, grade every source, and score every judgement.

01

Collect

Four tiers, from automated open sources to a named human network.

02

Filter

Country-specific filters cut the noise, so only what bears on you remains.

03

Grade

Every source rated for reliability and every claim for credibility.

04

Score

Each judgement carries a calibrated probability, and its confidence stated separately.

Every judgement is adversarially reviewed and source-backed before it leaves.

Source gradingB2
Reliability
ACompletely reliable
BUsually reliable
CFairly reliable
DNot usually reliable
EUnreliable
FCannot be judged
Credibility
1Confirmed by other sources
2Probably true
3Possibly true
4Doubtful
5Improbable
6Truth cannot be judged
We quantify, we do not hedge.

A fixed probability vocabulary, so a word means the same thing every time.

Almost certainly / highly likely90 to 99 percent
Likely / probably65 to 85 percent
Roughly even chance45 to 55 percent
Unlikely / probably not15 to 35 percent
Very unlikely / highly improbable1 to 10 percent

Confidence reflects evidence quality; probability reflects likelihood. We state them separately.

Case Studies

Featured Engagements

Country-by-country intelligence, hyper-curated to each engagement.

Client

Global Apparel Retailer

South Asia & US Trade Policy

Tariff, labour-cost and regulatory exposure across six sourcing countries — modelled months before the shift hit.

Tariff structuresLanded cost modelingSourcing optimizationWage inflationPolicy detectionMargin protection

0.0 pts

Effective tariff rate cut

55% → 5%

China exposure reduced

0 wks

Advance warning on tariff shifts

Interactive: Sourcing Mix Optimizer

Toggle the scenarios to see how rebalancing cut the effective tariff rate.

Effective Tariff Rate

35.8%

China Exposure

5%

Sourcing distribution, stacked by country

25%
18%
22%
18%
12%
China
Vietnam
Bangladesh
India
Indonesia
Cambodia

Rebalanced mix. China exposure cut from 55% to 5%. Effective tariff rate dropped to 35.8%. Margin protected without disrupting the buying cycle.

Result

The analysis modeled the tariff impact 8 weeks before imposition. In the modeled rebalance, China sourcing falls from 55% to 5% and the effective tariff rate from 43.3% to 35.8% — protecting margin without disrupting the buying cycle.

Network & Access04 / 08
From The Island Podcast

Our Growing Network

Our network is the product. The biggest English-language podcast in Sri Lanka gives us ongoing access to the people shaping policy, markets, and capital. On the ground, in the room, in real time.

5M+

Total reach across platforms

#1

English-language podcast in Sri Lanka

100+

Conversations with policymakers, experts, entrepreneurs

Recent Conversations

Dr. Joanna Siekiera

Dr. Joanna Siekiera

NATO Warfare Consultant

Ali Sabry

Ali Sabry

Foreign Minister, Sri Lanka

Dr. Harsha De Silva

Dr. Harsha De Silva

MP & Chairman, Committee on Public Finance

Namal Rajapaksa

Namal Rajapaksa

Presidential Candidate & Party Leader

Dr. W. A. Wijewardena

Dr. W. A. Wijewardena

Deputy Governor, Central Bank of Sri Lanka

Santosh Menon & Dhananath Fernando

Santosh Menon & Dhananath Fernando

India Business Council President & Think Tank Founder

Colonel Raj Vijayasiri

Colonel Raj Vijayasiri

Founder, LRRP Special Forces Unit & Corporate Coach

Erik Solheim

Erik Solheim

Deputy Secretary-General, United Nations

Gabriel Honrada

Gabriel Honrada

Philippine Naval Intelligence Officer & Research Fellow

More of our network.

01

Peter Sjogren

Harvard Lawyer & Regulatory Specialist

02

Roy Ratnavel

Vice President, Canada’s Largest Private Hedge Fund

03

Santosh Jha

High Commissioner of India

04

Maulik Bhansali

Chairman, NASSCOM India

05

Natasha Gooneratne

International Law Expert & CEO, Perspective South

The full capability
Single engagements
The Eight Forces

Every force acting on your decision, watched as one.

Eight intelligence lines, run continuously. Select a force to see how we read it — from signal, to risk, to the move that compounds.

Force 01

Policy & Regulatory

Every filing, consultation, and draft tracked across your markets.

1

Intelligence

Every filing, consultation, and draft tracked across your markets

2

Risk

Rule changes that stall approvals and freeze launches

3

Opportunity

Compliance as a weapon, not a cost center

4

Decision

Move before the rule lands, not after

5

Growth

Faster market entry on every new framework

Client Types

01

Investors

Funds, family offices, allocators.

02

Private Sector

Corporates with cross-border exposure.

03

NGOs

Operators in complex political environments.

04

Think Tanks

Research institutions needing proprietary inputs.

05

Public Bodies

Government-linked, navigating geopolitical alignment.

Serving clients across every continent.

FounderPrincipal-Led
05 / 08

Institutional-grade intelligence, made accessible.

Shanil Dutta, Founder of Aryavelle Intelligence

Shanil Dutta worked in the Parliament of Sri Lanka and as an analyst at an NYSE-listed market intelligence firm in its Singapore office.

Sri Lanka's first and only geopolitical intelligence firm — built to bring institutional-grade intelligence to the private firms and investors previously priced out.

LinkedIn

Experience

Parliament of Sri Lanka

Corporate

NYSE-listed intelligence firm, Singapore

Mission

Closing the intelligence gap

Leverage Workshops06 / 08

Leverage

Corporate and academic strategy workshops — war-gaming, geopolitical risk, and growth positioning for executives.

Skills Session

01.Skills Session

C-Level Strategy Sessions

02.C-Level Strategy Sessions

Request Access

Access is limited and exclusive.

Clients are selected on fit. Share your context and we'll respond with next steps.

Aryavelle08 / 08
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